Poker Odds
When it comes to poker odds, you can never know
enough about it. And this one short page isn't going to teach
you everything you need to know about calculating odds: very
far from it. Think of it more as an introduction to something
that, as a serious poker player, you should constantly be learning
more about.
Probably the biggest mistake a poker player can
make is playing too many hands and not folding their cards nearly
often enough. If you're playing half of the hands that are dealt
to you, you're playing way too many. A tight player
will fold somewhere around 80% of the cards dealt to them.
Probably the second biggest mistake a poker player
can make is holding onto cards that actually are good hands,
but that won't be enough to take the pot.
Outs
Think of outs as unruly teenagers that are out
messing around all night, and think of yourself as a nervous
parent: you want to know where those outs are at all times,
how many of them are out at the moment, and when they're coming
home. Outs are the cards left in the deck that can help your
hand; for example, say you've got 6 7 in your hand and 9 T on
the board: that missing 8 is the out you need to complete your
straight.
Pot Odds, Bet Odds and Implied Odds
Pot odds are the odds on the pot as it stands
at the moment compared to what you will be forced to call in
order to have a shot at winning it; bet odds are odds based
on how the other players at the table will react to your raising
them; implied odds are concerned with how you think betting
is going to proceed throughout the hand.
Poker Math
Did you bring a piece of paper and a pencil? 'Cause
I'm taking you to school.
Remeber that 8 you needed to complete your straight?
To figure out your chances of drawing it, divide the number
of outs left in the deck by the number of cards still unseen
(including the burned cards and your opponents' cards). This
number becomes the percentage odds of how likely it is that
you'll draw that card you need.
So for example, you've got the 6 and 7 in your
hand, the 9 and ten came up on the Flop, and you're waiting
for the Turn to see if you draw the inside straight. Since there
are 4 eights in the deck that means you have 4 outs; subtract
that from the 52 cards in the deck, plus the two cards in your
hand and the 3 cards on the board. That 45 unseen cards. Divide
your outs by the number of unseen cards and your percentage
of drawing the card you need comes out to about 9%. If it doesn't
come up on the Turn, your chances on the River are 9%.
Pot odds aren't any more difficult; compare your
outs to the size of the pot. Say you're playing a $10/$20 game,
head's up, and the only guy left in the hand has just bet $20.
The pot is now up to $280, and if you call his bet you have
a chance to win $300. 300 divided by 20 leaves you with a 1-to-15
ratio on the pot, and on the River you have a 1-in-12 chance
of winning the pot. 1/12 is higher than 1/15, so calling his
bet is a good idea.
As I said before, though, calculating poker odds
is a very complex process and should be taken seriously and
studied hard.
bluffing
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